The Legend of the Phoenix, from the ancient Greeks has it that the mystical bird when it completes a life-cycle, burns to ashes and then from these ashes arises a new young bird resplendent in all its glory of gold and color.
Last year between Aug 19 and Aug 22, 2008 I had written about the impending retail crash, which would cause a crash in retail sales leading to what would be a “Red Friday”.
http://sunilmohal.blogspot.com/2008/08/ides-of-march.html
http://sunilmohal.blogspot.com/2008/08/no-man-is-island.html
I further opined in February 2009 that we would see some signs of recovery by October 2009. Taken in the context of the situation at the beginning of the year I would like to quote a few words from Anne Lamott; “Hope begins in the dark, the stubborn hope that if you just show up and try to do the right thing, the dawn will come.”
Much has happened in the last one year. There has been widespread pessimism and predictions of an “Apocalypse” in the economy. In the next couple of articles I would like to share my opinion of the way things are headed, with the thought that the dawn is almost upon us.
1. New home sales have surged 11% in June 2009, over the previous month. Of course one should be careful in what one reads from this, as the median price range has fallen. However the flip side is that builders had 281,000 houses on the market last month, down 4.1 % from May. This is the lowest since February 1998. This should see a surge in construction activity. In fact as per the US Dept. of Commerce US steel production showed an increase of13.5% from 3.8 million metric tons in April to 4.2 million in May.
Last year between Aug 19 and Aug 22, 2008 I had written about the impending retail crash, which would cause a crash in retail sales leading to what would be a “Red Friday”.
http://sunilmohal.blogspot.com/2008/08/ides-of-march.html
http://sunilmohal.blogspot.com/2008/08/no-man-is-island.html
I further opined in February 2009 that we would see some signs of recovery by October 2009. Taken in the context of the situation at the beginning of the year I would like to quote a few words from Anne Lamott; “Hope begins in the dark, the stubborn hope that if you just show up and try to do the right thing, the dawn will come.”
Much has happened in the last one year. There has been widespread pessimism and predictions of an “Apocalypse” in the economy. In the next couple of articles I would like to share my opinion of the way things are headed, with the thought that the dawn is almost upon us.
1. New home sales have surged 11% in June 2009, over the previous month. Of course one should be careful in what one reads from this, as the median price range has fallen. However the flip side is that builders had 281,000 houses on the market last month, down 4.1 % from May. This is the lowest since February 1998. This should see a surge in construction activity. In fact as per the US Dept. of Commerce US steel production showed an increase of13.5% from 3.8 million metric tons in April to 4.2 million in May.
2. Car sales continue to drop, but it appears that the bottom has been reached. Ford plans to increase production by 16% in Q3.
3. The U.S. Census Bureau announced on July 14th advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, were $342.1 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month. Though we see that there is a month on month increase, there is a difference of 9% from June 2008.
4. Most Banks have shown improved performance for almost 2 quarters now showing that the worst in the banking sector seems to be over. Here again, we need to read this with caution as some of the implied profits is due to one off sales or accounting changes.
5. The Job market has continued to show a decline but the numbers of people being laid off are showing signs of declining. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
While a lot of people may think “When things are bad, we take comfort in the thought that they could always be worse. And when they are, we find hope in the thought that things are so bad they have to get better.”, I am of the belief that this year “Black Friday” will definitely bring some cheer in retail figures.
The Phoenix will rise…
While a lot of people may think “When things are bad, we take comfort in the thought that they could always be worse. And when they are, we find hope in the thought that things are so bad they have to get better.”, I am of the belief that this year “Black Friday” will definitely bring some cheer in retail figures.
The Phoenix will rise…
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